Iraq’s Post-US Reality as an Iranian Launchpad

The withdrawal aligns with a 2024 timetable, yet the context has shifted drastically since the Iran war began in February. Iraq now faces an economic crisis, with oil exports dropping from 3.5 million to 2.5 million barrels per day due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This decline has cost the state roughly $60 billion, threatening the federal budget which relies on oil for 90% of its funding. While Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi has mandated that militias surrender their weapons by June 2027, the reality is that groups like Kataib Hezbollah remain embedded within the state through the Popular Mobilisation Forces, rendering simple disarmament orders ineffective.

Iraqi soil offers Tehran a critical layer of deniability. Strikes against Saudi energy infrastructure, including the East-West pipeline, are frequently attributed to rogue factions rather than the Iranian state. With US forces gone, the tripwire that once prompted joint US-Saudi military responses has vanished. Riyadh now faces the prospect of acting alone to defend its oil assets, as the leverage Washington maintains through control of Iraqi dollar flows at the New York Federal Reserve proves increasingly blunt. The future of the region hinges on whether Baghdad can assert control over militias that ignore the state budget, or if Iraq will become a permanent front in a wider conflict between the Gulf and Iran.